Baylor Football’s Crossroads: Can They Compete for a Conference Title?
Baylor football is entering a pivotal season, one where winning is no longer just a goal but a necessity. The stakes are high, and the pressure is on. If the Bears don’t deliver, the consequences could be severe. Head coach Dave Aranda is sitting firmly on a hot seat, and a poor season would likely mean a coaching overhaul. In the modern era of college football, winning a conference championship isn’t what it used to be. Once the ultimate achievement, it’s now a stepping stone to the College Football Playoff. But for Baylor, it remains a critical benchmark. So how close are they to competing at the top?
Recapping 2025: A Season of Missed Opportunities
Last year, Baylor finished 5-7 overall and 3-6 in conference play, landing just above four teams: Oklahoma State, Colorado, West Virginia, and UCF. The season had its bright spots, including an overtime win against SMU in early September. But those moments were overshadowed by losses to TCU, Arizona, and Arizona State. Wins over Kansas State and an Oklahoma State team that went winless in conference play offered some solace, but the overall record was disappointing.
Despite the struggles, the coaching staff was retained for one more run. The focus shifted to reshaping the roster through the transfer portal and player development.
What’s New in Waco? The Quarterback Question
It’s impossible to talk about Baylor’s changes without spotlighting the quarterback position. DJ Lagway, a former five-star recruit who initially committed to Florida, is now the crown jewel of the transfer portal. He brings a high-upside, dynamic presence that could elevate the offense beyond what Sawyer Robertson offered. Lagway is supported by a potentially strong ground game, though the receiving corps remains inexperienced.
Defensively, the anchor is defensive tackle Hosea Wheeler, with key contributions from Travion Barnes and Garrick Ponder. These three players form a solid foundation for Aranda’s defense, which will need to step up to keep games close.
How Close Are They Really?
There is a path to Baylor competing for a conference championship in 2026, but it’s not the most realistic outcome. If Lagway lives up to his billing, anything is possible. However, the more likely scenario is that this season serves as a foundation for a bigger push in 2027. By then, Lagway would be in his second year, and the offensive line and receiving corps should be more cohesive.
The answer to this question could change dramatically based on this season’s results. If Baylor stumbles to another sub-.500 record, expect a coaching turnover and a roster exodus via the transfer portal. That would reset the clock by two or three years. But a bounce-back season that saves Aranda’s job and keeps Lagway and the core intact? That could set the stage for a serious run at the top of the conference in 2027.
What’s at Stake for Baylor and College Football?
This season isn’t just about wins and losses. It’s about the future of the program, the direction of college athletics, and the role of the transfer portal in reshaping teams. For fans, it’s a test of patience and hope. For the players, it’s a chance to prove that Baylor can rise again. And for the broader conversation about equity in college sports, it’s a reminder that even mid-tier programs can dream big with the right moves.
FAQ: Baylor Football’s Conference Title Hopes
Can Baylor realistically win a conference championship in 2026?
It’s possible but unlikely. The path depends heavily on DJ Lagway’s performance and the defense’s consistency. A strong season could set the stage for 2027.
What happens if Baylor has another losing season?
A losing season would likely lead to a coaching change and roster turnover, setting the program back by two to three years.
How important is the transfer portal for Baylor’s rebuild?
Critical. Landing DJ Lagway shows the portal can be a game-changer, but retaining talent is just as important for long-term success.