Trump’s Grip on the GOP Weakens as Midterms Approach, New Poll Shows

A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll reveals that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has sunk to 37 percent, with even his most loyal Republican base showing signs of fatigue. The survey, conducted July 8-13 among 2,648 U.S. adults, paints a stark picture for the GOP as the midterm elections loom in November.

While 81 percent of Republicans still back Trump, support among Republican-leaning independents has dropped to 52 percent. This erosion of enthusiasm within his own coalition suggests the president’s political grip may be loosening at a critical moment. The numbers place Trump’s standing on par with where it was when he left office in January 2021, after losing his reelection bid and the Capitol riot.

What is driving the decline in Trump’s approval?

The economy and the ongoing war with Iran are the primary drags on Trump’s numbers. Only 33 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the economy, and just 29 percent approve of his conduct overseeing the conflict with Iran. Immigration remains a relative bright spot at 40 percent approval, though that is down from 50 percent at the start of his term.

By more than a 2-to-1 margin, Americans expect the economy to worsen over the next year. A new high of 43 percent say they are “not as well off” as when Trump returned to office, a 12-point jump since February. Two-thirds of Americans now say groceries are unaffordable, up sharply from 45 percent before the Iran war began in February.

Why are Republican voters losing faith in Trump’s economic promises?

Republicans have tried rebranding last year’s tax legislation, once called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as the “working families tax cut.” But the pitch is not landing. Only 19 percent say they paid less in taxes because of the law, while 25 percent think they paid more. The Treasury Department says 97 percent of filers received some tax cut, but the public remains skeptical.

Gas prices are another stubborn problem. Trump has promised that ending the Iran conflict will bring prices down quickly, but roughly 6 in 10 Americans doubt it. Gas averaged $3.89 a gallon this week, down from a May peak of $4.56 but still well above the $2.93 average before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran. The war, once predicted to be brief, has now dragged on for roughly five months.

How is the Iran war affecting public confidence?

Last week, Trump announced the end of a ceasefire and resumed strikes on Iran, then announced a blockade on Iranian ports before appearing to back off. Two-thirds of Americans say they lack confidence that military action and negotiations will stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. And 68 percent say the war has not been worth fighting, compared with 28 percent who say it has.

Just over half of Americans say U.S. leadership in the world has weakened under Trump, while 29 percent say it has strengthened.

What does this mean for the midterms?

Republican majorities in both the House and Senate are now at risk in November. A shift would hamper Trump’s agenda and reshape governing dynamics in Washington for the remainder of his term. The poll shows Trump’s disapproval rating at 61 percent, statistically unchanged from a previous survey, while his approval among registered voters is 40 percent.

FAQ

Is Trump’s base really crumbling?

While 81 percent of Republicans still back him, support among Republican-leaning independents has slipped to 52 percent. This erosion within his own coalition is a warning sign for the GOP.

What are the biggest issues hurting Trump?

The economy and the Iran war are the top drags. Only 33 percent approve of his handling of the economy, and 29 percent approve of his conduct overseeing the war.

How do Americans feel about the economy under Trump?

By more than 2 to 1, Americans expect the economy to worsen over the next year. A record 43 percent say they are not as well off as when Trump returned to office.